Premier League Predicted Table and Team Ratings Post Deadline Day

The new ratings above have been adjusted for the performance over the first two games of the season. They were then combined with a weighted projected team strength generated by the Transfermarkt overall team value post transfer deadline day moves. There is a strong linear* correlation between team valuations and league performance over all of the top five football competitions.

Att rating represents for every goal scored by an average team in the league how many does the team score.

Def rating represents for every goal conceded by an average team in the league how many does the team concede.

XPI (Expected Performance Index) is the ratio between the two ratings. It represents if a goal is scored in a match involving the team how much more likely is it they scored rather than conceded.

With the new updated ratings we ran a significantly larger simulation (50,000 seasons) and increased the possible random fluctuations in team strengths. This leads to a wider spread on teams finishing position while not impacting their average. Earlier in the season this is more representative of the unknowns in any given team’s strength.

* The exact order of the correlation is highly debated. Attempting to project fixture and season results purely based on Transfermarkt values is viable but exceptionally flawed for many reasons, not least it lags significantly behind the performance of a team. Linear modelling works well enough when we introduce several other modeled performance elements into the projections.